For the past few years, every housing headline has seemed to predict either a booming market or an imminent crash. The latest San Diego housing data paints a much different picture.

Home values haven't fallen dramatically. They also aren't climbing the way they did during the pandemic.

Instead, they've reached a plateau.

According to the latest data from Steven Thomas at Reports on Housing, San Diego County home values are only down about 1.1% over the past year despite nearly four years of mortgage rates above 6%. That's a remarkably stable market considering the affordability challenges buyers have faced.

Why Have Prices Flattened?

Today's market is being shaped by two powerful forces. The first is affordability. Mortgage rates have remained elevated for years, reducing the number of buyers who can comfortably afford today's prices.

The second is supply.

Many homeowners locked in mortgage rates between 2% and 4% during the pandemic. Those owners have little financial incentive to move, which continues to limit the number of homes coming onto the market.

Those two forces have created a market that is neither strongly favoring buyers nor sellers. It's balanced.

Inventory Is Still Below Normal

There are currently 5,717 homes for sale across San Diego County. While that's far more inventory than we saw during the pandemic, it's still about 8% below this time last year and roughly 21% below the pre-COVID average. Through June, 28% fewer homes came to market than the average from 2017–2019. In other words, inventory has improved—but it is still historically constrained.

Buyers Are Still Active

Buyer demand dipped slightly over the past few weeks, largely due to the normal Fourth of July holiday slowdown but activity is expected to stabilize as the summer continues.

The expected market time for San Diego County now sits at 93 days. That's slower than earlier this spring but still faster than the 106-day pace we saw one year ago.

What This Means for Buyers

Buyers have more breathing room than they did during the frenzy of 2021 and early 2022. Negotiating opportunities exist, inspections matter again, and buyers have more inventory to choose from. That said, desirable homes that are priced correctly continue to attract strong interest.

What This Means for Sellers

If you're thinking about selling, don't let the word "plateau" discourage you. A balanced market doesn't mean homes aren't selling. It means buyers have become more selective. The homes that are well prepared, professionally marketed, and realistically priced continue to perform well. Homes that chase yesterday's prices often spend longer on the market and eventually require price reductions.

Looking Ahead

The biggest variable for the second half of 2026 remains mortgage rates. Rates below roughly 6.5% tend to improve affordability and increase buyer demand. If rates remain elevated, expect home values to remain relatively flat through the rest of the year.

Final Thoughts

The biggest takeaway isn't that San Diego housing is getting weaker. It's that the market has become more normal. Buyers have options. Sellers still have equity. And success depends less on timing the market and more on having a smart strategy tailored to your goals.